Coronavirus and U.S. Visas: What You Need to Know

In January 2020, the first cases of Coronavirus were reported in China. Shortly after, cases started popping up in more than 30 countries around the world. 

And while much of the news and analysis has been focused on Coronavirus’s health and (to a lesser extent) economic implications, virtually no consideration is being given to its U.S. immigration and immigration-related economic implications. 

Coronavirus stands to lose the U.S. economy billions of dollars in due to its resultant bans on travel and the issuing of visas to Chinese foreign nationals. 

Read on to learn more, or check out our video Coronavirus Effects on H-1B Visa Holders and the U.S. Economy & Travel!

What is Coronavirus?

According to the World Health Organization (WHO), Coronaviruses “are a large family of viruses that cause illness ranging from the common cold to more severe diseases such as Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS-CoV) and Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS-CoV). 

The Coronavirus that the current 2020 outbreak is concerned with is a strain of the virus originating from the Wuhan province of China. Many of the people initially infected by the virus either worked or shopped at the Huanan seafood wholesale market in Wuhan, which sold newly slaughtered animals. 

As of this writing, more than 43,000 confirmed cases of the virus have been reported in nearly 30 countries (including the U.S.) with nearly 1000 virus-related deaths already reported. 

U.S. Immigration and Financial Implications of Coronavirus 

As a result of the Coronavirus being reported in the U.S., there a number of current and potential immigration and economic-related implications. 

The U.S. Department of State China Travel Advisory

On February 2, the U.S. Department of State issued a Level 4 travel advisory advising U.S. citizens not to travel to China due to the Coronavirus outbreak. The advisory encouraged U.S. citizens located within China to depart the country immediately if possible and encouraged citizens in the U.S. to not travel to China at all. 

Worries about Coronavirus are not limited to the U.S., however. Many governments around the world have begun refusing flights from China. According to OAG, the combined global effort to contain Coronavirus has resulted in the international air travel capacity of China being reduced by two-thirds, taking China from the third-largest aviation market to the sixteenth largest. 

Coronavirus Effect on U.S. Visas and the Economy

On January 31, President Trump issued a Presidential Proclamation effectively barring any foreign nationals who have visited the People’s Republic of China (PRC) during the 14 days previous to the order from entering the U.S.

The travel ban affects foreign nationals who hold B-1 business and B-2 tourist visas, F-1 student visas, and H-1B visas, as well as other common and less-common visa types.

There are, however, so exemptions to the ban, including exemptions for:

• green card holders
• spouses of permanent residents or U.S. citizens
• parents / legal guardians of permanent residents or U.S. citizens
• siblings of permanent residents or U.S. citizens
• children who are foster children or wards of permanent residents or U.S. citizens
• children who are prospective adoptees seeking to enter the United States

Any Chinese nationals who are not covered by the exemptions listed above will not be able to obtain entry into the U.S. for the duration of the Coronavirus travel ban. 

Effects on B Visa Holders and the U.S. Economy

B visa holders traveling to the U.S., by a wide margin, will account for the largest losses to the U.S. economy as a result of Coronavirus. 

The B visa is a travel visa that’s broken out into two subcategories: 

• B-1 visas are issued to those seeking to enter the U.S. for business purposes 
• B-2 visas are issued to those seeing to enter the U.S. as tourists. 

Foreign nationals seeking to visit the U.S. for business or for pleasure need to obtain a B visa to do so. 

The U.S. currently holds the world’s largest travel and tourism economy. In 2018 alone, travel and tourism to the U.S. accounted for nearly $1.6 trillion to GDP (or 7.8 percent of GDP in the U.S.). That same year, China accounted for nearly half of all visitors to the U.S.

According to Statista, the number of visitors to the U.S. from China in 2020 was projected to be 2.87M. But under the Coronavirus travel ban, there is no way for Chinese foreign nationals to attain a B visa to travel to the U.S., effectively eliminating half of the U.S. U.S. travel and tourism economy for the duration of the ban. 

Mark Zandi, the chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, estimates that Coronavirus will result in $10.3B in lost Chinese visitor spending in the U.S.

Effects on F-1 International Students and the U.S. Economy

The F-1 visa is issued to international students seeking to study at a college or university in the U.S. In 2018, USCIS issued 362,929 F-1 visas to international students. Of those visas, 98,904 (or 27%) were allocated to Chinese foreign nationals, more than double the next largest group. Currently, under the travel ban, no new U.S. F-1 visas are being issued to Chinese international students. 

According to a report by HSBC, the average international student spends $24,854 per year on their education. So assuming that the 2020 F-1 visa allocation to Chinese international students matches the 2018 allocation and that the per-year cost of education has remained the same, the result would be a nearly $2.8 billion annual loss to U.S. higher education for as long as the ban is in effect. 

Effects on H-1B Visa Holders and the U.S. Economy

The H-1B visa is a temporary employment-based work visa issued to employ foreign workers in specialty occupations. In 2017, 108,101 new H-1B visas were approved in the U.S. Of those approvals, 15,165 were for Chinese foreign nationals coming to work in the U.S. (or 14% of all H-1B visa holders).

According to a 2017 study in Management Science, the U.S. economy is strengthened by H-1B visa holders who fill key roles in enhancing organizations and supplementing the work of their U.S. peers. The study found that that skilled foreign employees serve as a significant asset to human capital growth within the audit industry. In just 2012, H-1B visa holders contributed 28 percent to the growth of assurance business human capital for the six audit firms in the study. 

While it would be difficult to measure the exact impact of the current halt on the issuing of H-1B visas to Chinese nationals, some generalities can be made. 

Given the significant portion of H-1B visas issued to Chinese nationals, a ban on new H-1B visas for the duration of the Coronavirus outbreak means a significant reduction in the overall number of H-1B visas being issued. A reduction in overall H-1B approvals, in turn, means a reduction in business growth in sectors that employ H-1B visa holders and in the economy in general. 

Coronavirus Affect on the U.S. Aviation Economy 

While the focus of this article is meant to be on the negative impact Coronavirus has on U.S. immigration from China and it’s ripple effects on the U.S. economy, it’s worth taking a moment to discuss Coronavirus’ negative impact on the U.S. aviation economy. 

John Grant, a senior analyst with OAG Aviation, said in a statement that international reduction in flights is “probably the most significant ever seen in one week in response to any pandemic event.” In the U.S. alone, about 1360 flights operate each month between the U.S. and China, with 556 of those flights being routes operated by U.S. airline companies (representing nearly 5% of all U.S. international flight capacity). 

Hayley Berg, an economist for the travel site Hopper, noted that demand for flights from the U.S. to China has decreased as much as 58% since February 4, while three of the top four U.S. carriers (United Airlines, American Airlines, and Delta Airlines) have halted all flights to and from China. 

Again, it’s hard to know the exact impact Coronavirus will have on the U.S. aviation economy, but we can glean some insights with the available information. Here’s what we know:

• The average cost of a roundtrip flight to China cost ~$1,000 
• The average number of seats on a trans-Pacific flight to China is ~335/plane
• The average number of monthly U.S. carrier flights between the U.S. and China is ~556

With these numbers, it can be estimated that the U.S.-to-China flight economy for U.S. airlines is worth close to $200M each month. With some airlines opting to not resume flights to China until the end of April 2020, there’s potential for the U.S. airline economy to lose nearly $500M or more. 

Final Thoughts

While the full immigration and immigration-related economic implications of Coronavirus have yet to be fully realized, there’s no doubt that the virus’s effect will be a negative one. With the losses of a large segment of the U.S. tourism economy, a halt on the issuing of new F-1 and H-1B visas, and the near-total stoppage of flights to and from the U.S. to China buy U.S. airlines, the overall economic downturn will be in the billions, if not the tens of billions. 

Frank Gogol

I’m a firm believer that information is the key to financial freedom. On the Stilt Blog, I write about the complex topics — like finance, immigration, and technology — to help immigrants make the most of their lives in the U.S. Our content and brand have been featured in Forbes, TechCrunch, VentureBeat, and more.

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